The downtrend may continue
During the livestream organized by VPBank Securities (VPBankS), Mr. Tran Hoang Son – Director of Market Strategy VPBankS acknowledged that the world context has many bright spots when US economic data is weaker than expected slow inflation. and the market reinforced expectations that the Fed had completed its interest rate hike cycle.
US Government bonds and the US Dollar also fell sharply, helping the S&P500 index increase strongly, approaching the peak in July and September of this year. However, experts believe that the S&P500 index is approaching a strong resistance zone and there may be a correction when many signals appear in the overbought zone. This may affect the general recovery trend of the global stock market.
Vietnam’s stock market recorded mixed movements when it fluctuated sharply due to unfavorable information. The fact that VN-Index has not been able to overcome the resistance of 1,124 points and at the same time lost MA10 in the last trading session of the week has triggered a strong increase in selling pressure across the market. Although the downtrend has slowed down, the loss of short-term bullish signals is becoming a drag for VN-Index at this time.
In addition, the momentum indicator is showing signs that a reversal could continue. Last week’s sharp decline confirmed the technical recovery from the bottom of 1,020 points officially ended. A downtrend can occur when Stochastic Fast begins to decrease again from the oversold area, Gs Indicator begins to show a slight decrease, signaling a possible reversal.
Market breadth also narrowed after the weekend session when the proportion of codes above MA10 decreased sharply from over 80% to 64%. The proportion of codes above MA20 decreased slightly from over 77% to 71%, showing that many stock groups with strong profit taking began to lose important support areas in the short term.
Bottom 2 of VN-Index will be higher than the previous bottom
“The information factor is legitimizing profit-taking selling. Although caution is not excessive, investors should not be too concerned. Although there is selling pressure, good demand absorption shows that cash flow is still on the sidelines. waiting for the market to adjust to disbursement. After the decline, VN-Index may create a 2nd bottom before the index rebounded to exceed MA200 thanks to the support of later cash flows,” experts forecast.
With an optimistic scenario when the 1,080 point area is maintained, Mr. Son believes that the VN-Index will recover to the 1,090 – 1,115 point area just below the MA200-day technical resistance.
However, in a cautious scenario, if VN-Index loses 1,080 points, equivalent to breaking the MA20 and P.Sar support, a sharp decline may occur. The index may create a second bottom in the 1,042-1,060 point area then accumulate and gradually recover.
“No matter what scenario happens, VN-Index is likely to still be higher than the old bottom and this strengthens the recovery momentum ahead,” said Mr. Tran Hoang Son.
The group of securities stocks continues to lead the wave
Regarding investment strategy when predicting that the market may fluctuate in the short term, investors should consider taking profits from profitable portfolios and monitor disbursement at potential support areas such as 1,042-1,060 points. .
The second bottom correction will be an opportunity for cash flow to come later and investors can consider some industry groups that are leading the wave in the market.
Regarding the securities stocks group, experts believe that most stocks still attract money very well and become the best wave guide group at the present time. With many codes moving to Leading, if the correction appears is only technical in nature and investors can take advantage of the opportunity to increase their proportion.
The banking stocks group had the opposite trend when attracting money poorly and with strong diversification. Most stock groups exited Leading due to a lot of less positive information related to the Van Thinh Phat incident. However, if this group of stocks corrects further, investors with a medium-term vision can still consider disbursing to banks with basic foundations, with business results expected to recover in the last quarter of the year and 2024. .
Although real estate stocks have been “leading the wave” in recent times, investors can also consider taking partial profits when there are signs of weakness, but the industrial park real estate stocks in particular are “healthy”. ” significantly higher than the general market.
The oil and gas group is gradually slowing down as positive information has gradually reflected significantly in recent times. Steel stocks also cooled down, but investors can still consider holding for a vision of 2024.