(Dan Tri) – A model for forecasting labor supply and demand according to a new approach, researched and developed by the Department of Employment with the support of the International Labor Organization (ILO), is expected to be applied from the beginning of the year. 2025, helping to solve the problem of imbalance in the current labor market.
May 24, Newspaper People Accompanying the Employment Department (Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs) to organize an online seminar with the topic: “Analysis and forecast of supply and demand – Solutions to clear bottlenecks in the labor market”.
The program aims to analyze the causes leading to the current local labor supply-demand imbalance; discuss solutions to overcome this limitation, focusing on solutions to analyze and forecast labor supply – demand.
“Delicious food but indifferent diners”
Contrary to the unemployment situation reported by the press recently, the Hanoi Employment Service Center noted that, in addition to being cut due to a lack of orders or lack of raw materials, many workers were unemployed due to do not want to search for new job positions.
“We also hold job sessions from Monday to Friday on the entire satellite exchange, attracting businesses to participate with many attractive vacancies, but many workers have not yet joined. We are also trying to figure out why the food is so delicious but the diners are indifferent,” said Vu Quang Thanh, deputy director of the Hanoi Employment Service Center.
According to Mr. Pham Ngoc Toan – Director of the Center for Strategic Analysis and Forecasting, Institute of Labor and Social Sciences, in addition to the imbalance in quantity (where there is a surplus – where there is a shortage of labor), the market also There is an imbalance in terms of qualifications (ie workers are trained at one level but the market has demand at another level), skills, age…
These imbalances in a certain area lead to an oversupply of labor, but enterprises cannot recruit personnel. As a result, society does not make proper use of labor, reducing labor productivity.
“Workers want to find a job, but when they see that the number of job seekers is greater than the demand, they will feel depressed. Some workers do not participate in the formal market, most recently there has been a withdrawal of social insurance. In the long term, workers lose their social security guarantees and risk their lives. Therefore, the imbalance of labor supply and demand is an urgent issue that needs to be resolved immediately.” Mr. Toan said.
Market forecasting is considered the “key” to help remove the current labor supply-demand imbalance. By providing timely information, this solution is expected to help employees, employers, training institutions… adjust the plan and have the most effective solution.
Current supply and demand forecast: No practical meaning yet
In fact, for many years now, Vietnam has had many labor demand forecasting centers, human resource training demand analysis and forecasting centers, national forecasting centers, and research institutes belonging to different countries. ministry…
Even schools and businesses have many units involved in the process of surveying and forecasting labor supply and demand. But the Director of the Center for Strategic Analysis and Forecasting assessed that these reports mainly serve the macro level, have a strategic nature, and have no real meaning for employees and businesses.
“The units are lacking in consistency in deploying analysis and forecasting models. Each place implements it in different ways, leading to different results and we don’t know which results to use exactly.” Mr. Toan assessed.
Right in the capital, Mr. Vu Quang Thanh said he was still struggling, considering whether to deploy and use which analysis – forecasting model to suit the locality.
He expects to have an analytical model – forecasting labor supply and demand ensuring the following factors: scientific, suitable for each locality, flexible to be applied in the present and in the future and feasible to apply into reality.
With the support of the International Labor Organization (ILO), through the Labor Productivity Ecosystem (PE4DW) project, the Department of Employment is researching and building a model to forecast labor supply – demand suitable for the labor market. suitable for Vietnam. The approach of this model is to provide labor market information in a timely and detailed manner to each locality and properly meet the needs of stakeholders.
If successfully implemented, this model will provide timely labor market forecasting information. As a result, employees know how the market is going so that they can prepare and participate in appropriate training. Enterprises determine labor costs in each region or region to assess whether human resources are ready for them to expand their investment or not. Localities can also be more proactive in regulating labor, instead of depending on the central government as at present.
“This model also helps solve social problems by connecting effectively in the labor market. Localities have clear information, reducing costs for society. Workers are easy to find jobs. Businesses do not It takes time, recruitment costs, and labor to ensure production and business,” Mr. Toan expected.
It is expected that this forecasting model and database platform (including information technology infrastructure, database structure) will be completed by 2024. By 2025, there will be input sources of information. for the database and launch the initial model.