However, this forecast is still considered an improvement compared to 5.0% in 2023. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 decreased to 5.7% (from 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023). . Standard Chartered lowered its growth forecast for the second quarter of 2024 to 5.3% (from 6.3%) and the third quarter of 2024 to 6.0% (from 7.2%). But growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to recover to 6.7%.
According to an economist from Standard Chartered Bank, trade, an important source of growth and investment for Vietnam, also faces short- and long-term challenges. However, Vietnam’s economy is still on the recovery path despite risks. Retail sales still grew strongly in the first quarter.
Standard Chartered Bank also lowered its 2024 inflation forecast from 5.5% to 4.3% because first quarter inflation was lower than expected. The bank forecasts that interest rates will be kept at 4.5% until the end of the third quarter and may increase by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter to face the possibility of inflation due to growth promotion.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Thailand and Vietnam economist, Standard Chartered Bank said: “Vietnam is enhancing its position in the global supply chain, attracting foreign investment thanks to a favorable investment environment and the potential influence of US-China trade relations. With the economy on the path to recovery, we believe that monetary policy will need less support.”
According to Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Vietnam’s monetary policy will be balanced based on improvements from external factors and increased foreign exchange reserves. Strong export growth will support the currency while imports also improve. The bank forecasts the current account surplus will reach 3.5% of GDP by 2024.
Tags: Standard Chartered adjusts Vietnam GDP growth forecast
