ISW: Russia will change its target, stepping up its attack on Ukraine in the next few weeks

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The war between Russia and Ukraine has entered its third year and is becoming more and more fierce (Illustration: Skynews)

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Russian forces will likely increase drone and missile attacks in the coming weeks to cause maximum damage to the country. Ukraine’s defense industry and infrastructure before US assistance.

Defense analysts say Shoigu’s focus on Ukraine’s logistics attacks shows that Moscow forces may change their target mix to target transportation and logistics infrastructure. and Ukrainian military warehouses.

The Russian military will likely increase offensive operations in the coming weeks to exploit the logistical limitations of Ukrainian forces before the enemy receives security support from the United States.

Mr. Shoigu’s focus on emphasizing offensive operations near Chasov Yar, west of Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk city further shows that Russia has the ability to increase attacks in these areas.

Moscow forces launched intensive attacks to destroy Ukrainian transport infrastructure in the Dnepropetrovsk region on April 19 and intend to repeat and expand similar attacks in the coming weeks. came to cut off Ukraine’s land lines of communication.

Russian commanders may hope that a coordinated containment effort will limit Ukraine’s ability to fully deploy personnel and logistics along key sectors of the front and delay improved capabilities. benefits that US security assistance will provide to the Ukrainian military.

War map of Ukraine on April 23. In particular, Russia controls the pink area, the circles represent the fronts, the larger the size, the hotter the two epicentres are Avdiivka and Bakhmut. The yellow areas are where Moscow forces have just gained control (Photo: ISW).

Notable comments in ISW’s April 23 report:

The first, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke about Russia’s offensive operations near Chasov Yar, Avdiivka and Donetsk, and announced Russia’s intention to intensify the offensive campaign to weaken Ukraine’s logistics operations.

Monday, Mr. Shoigu also discussed the military reform process in a speech to a Defense Ministry committee on April 23, disguising current expansion efforts as an information operation aimed at portraying all Russia’s combat operations are defensive and respond to possible threats from NATO.

Tuesday, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian visited St. Petersburg on April 23 to participate in the 12th Russian International Security Summit.

Wednesday, The Chechen Republic appears to be trying to get closer to Iran as bilateral security cooperation between Russia and Iran strengthens.

Thursday, On April 23, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the provision of the largest military aid package in the country’s history worth about 662 million USD to Ukraine.

Friday, Moldovan authorities confiscated more than one million USD from Moldovan opposition politicians linked to the Kremlin at Chisinau airport on the night of April 22-23.

Saturday, Russian federal censorship agency Roskomnadzor has blocked 150 virtual private network (VPN) services in Russia, another step by the Kremlin to further censor and control Russia’s information space.

Eighth, Ukraine’s UAV attacks and recent flooding in Russia are said to have caused Russia’s weekly refining output to fall to an 11-month low, despite a decline in refining volumes so far is still at a small level.

Ninth, Kiev forces have recently advanced near Chasov Yar (west of Bakhmut) while Russia has made advances near Donetsk. Prominent Russian military bloggers continue to complain about the ineffectiveness of Russian UAVs on the battlefield.

The article is in Vietnamese

Tags: ISW Russia change target stepping attack Ukraine weeks

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