Fighting in Ukraine continues unabated and Russian forces continue to advance at many points along the line. Their latest target is the city of Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region that Russia partly controls.
Analysts from Novaya Gazeta Europe commented that Russia will not be able to take this city quickly. However, Chasiv Yar may fall due to Ukraine’s ammunition shortage. The speed of delivery of the military aid package just cleared by the US Congress will greatly affect the outcome of the upcoming Chasiv Yar battle.
RUSSIA PREPARES FOR VICTORY DAY?
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that the Russian army hopes to capture Chasiv Yar before Victory Day on May 9, when Russia commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II . According to The Kyiv Independent, General Syrskyi said Russia wants to penetrate Ukraine’s defense system west of Bakhmut, advance to the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal, capture Chasiv Yar and then “advance further towards Kramatorsk”.
“Russia’s plans are being hampered by the heroic defense of our brigades, who have defended firmly and are repelling attacks every day,” Mr. Syrskyi said. But the general admitted that the threat remains “real.”
Previously, the Director of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency, Kyrylo Budanov, told German television on April 7 that the Ukrainian army was preparing for the enemy’s upcoming major attack. “The Russian army will launch the offensive in late May, early June,” Mr. Budanov said, emphasizing that without the help of Western allies, the situation would be “catastrophically difficult” for with Ukraine.
A Russian military analyst who requested anonymity told Novaya Gazeta Europe that the Russian army was close to Chasiv Yar but suffered heavy losses in personnel and equipment. He said most of the town’s pre-war population of 12,000 had evacuated.
“The Russians are trying to attack many places at once,” said Roman Svitan, a military expert and a Ukrainian army colonel. He said the Russians also targeted areas around two other cities in the Donetsk region – Avdiivka and Marinka – and around Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region, but “the bulk” of Russian forces were focusing on Chasiv Yar.
Expert Svitan agrees with General Syrskyi that the Russians are clearly aiming to capture the city before Victory Day. “The Kremlin has a tradition of tying military victories to important dates,” he said.
According to him, Chasiv Yar is an important strategic location; If the Russians captured the city, its high altitude would allow them to fire on the nearby area around Kramatorsk. The success or failure of the campaign depends “on the number of artillery shells that the Ukrainian army has”. “If the allies can provide it in time [vũ khí] for the Ukrainian army, they will be able to effectively defend their positions and hold Chasiv Yar.”
CHASIV YAR IS NOT EASY TO PASS
Expert Svitan calls Chasiv Yar the foundation of Ukraine’s defense in the Donetsk region. If the city is captured, he said, the front line would move back significantly toward Ukraine, allowing Russian troops to shell and move to the towns of Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. If Russia takes those cities, it will practically take over the entire Donetsk region.
Regardless of whether Russia can capture those important locations in the immediate future, the people will suffer. The area is currently home to more than 300,000 people and intense fighting will destroy their living conditions.
However, according to military analyst Yan Matveyev, it will be “almost impossible for the Russians to quickly capture Chasiv Yar.” Mr Matveyev said that unless there was a “major disaster for Ukraine’s defense units”, such as running out of ammunition, they would not abandon Chasiv Yar because of its size and strategic location. “Russian forces have not yet entered the city, so the fighting could last for months,” Matveyev said.
Military analyst Kirill Mikhailov, formerly of the Conflict Intelligence Group – an independent organization that investigates armed conflicts, said that any plans Russia made to take the city before May 9 were “too optimistic”.
“Victory Day is less than half a month away and Chasiv Yar has complex terrain,” he said. Chasiv Yar is similar to Soledar, a city near Bakhmut that Ukraine only lost control of after five months of fighting.
Experts believe that Russia’s successes are due to the deployment of glide bombs, not thanks to superior manpower or artillery. They said glide bombs are the biggest danger to Ukrainian troops on the entire front line.
“Ukraine is now focusing all diplomatic efforts on increasing arms supplies,” Mr. Mikhailov said. According to Mr. Mikhailov, F-16 fighters will “help overcome the situation” but their effectiveness will depend on the range of the supplied air-to-air missiles. He added that recently the Russians have begun using new weapons that are more difficult to intercept, such as the UMPB D-30 glide bomb and the Kh-69 missile.
“The Ukrainians clearly have no way to repel Russian planes dropping glide bombs,” said an anonymous analyst. They explained that although the Patriot surface-to-air missile system has that capability, at least two Patriot launchers have been destroyed and the remaining systems are still needed in Kiev. “Furthermore, the ammunition they use is very expensive and Ukraine clearly doesn’t have much left.” He explained that, with Russia using heavy unguided bombs designed to level towns, Ukraine would be defenseless without more fighter aircraft.
UKRAINE ACTIVE DEFENSE
The anonymous analyst told Novaya Gazeta Europe that Ukraine should have prepared a deep, multi-layered defense system in the area around Chasiv Yar, knowing that the Russians would keep an eye on the city after capturing Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Ukrainian analysts at DeepState reported below-average fortifications in the region in early April.
Military expert Roman Svitan also pointed out that Ukraine only fires about 2,000 artillery rounds per day in the region while Russia fires nearly 10,000 rounds. “If Ukraine’s allies do not provide artillery shells, the Ukrainian army will have to leave Chasiv Yar,” he said.
The $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine was passed by the US Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden after months of deadlock. Shortly thereafter, the Pentagon announced a detailed aid package for Ukraine.
Tags: Assessing possibility Russia capturing Ukraines Chasiv Yar defensive fortress
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