ATACMS missile fires (Illustration: US Army).
According to experts at ISW, the army tactical missile system (ATACMS) provided by the US to Ukraine can weaken Russia’s logistics system and seriously threaten airports and warehouses. However, for Ukraine, they will be even more effective if they apply new tactics, combining these raids with reinforcement by ground offensive operations.
US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US would begin sending military equipment to Ukraine “within hours” after signing an aid bill of about $61 billion for Kiev.
Mr. Biden signed the additional aid bill for Ukraine on April 24 after the US Senate passed it on the evening of April 23 and the US House of Representatives passed it on the evening of April 20. At the same time, he noted the need to Provide military assistance to Ukraine as quickly as possible.
The Pentagon announced that the first tranche of US military aid stipulated in this bill is $1 billion.
Analysts note that US security assistance may arrive on the front lines in Ukraine within the next few weeks, earlier than Russia’s predictions.
“The battlefield situation will continue to deteriorate until Ukraine is able to receive and operate sufficient military equipment, and in the near term, Kiev forces may still have difficulty defending against the Russian army near Chasov Yar and northwest of Avdiivka,” the report said.
Experts note that the appearance of a sufficient number of long-range ATACMS missiles will allow the Ukrainian army to weaken Moscow’s logistics system and seriously threaten airfields in the deep rear, despite months of delay. The delay may have given the Russian military time to neutralize the potential dangers posed by the ATACMS missiles that the US will provide to Ukraine.
In addition, the appearance of long-range ATACMS missiles could also pose a significant threat to ammunition depots in the rear and force the Russian command to choose between reinforcing existing ammunition depots and further disperse ammunition stocks across the territories they control.
Russian forces may have adapted to Ukraine’s potential new offensive capabilities following the use of ATACMS in October 2023, although it remains unclear whether their ammunition stocks have been consolidated or radically dispersed. Are not.
The assessment recalls that the appearance of HIMARS in Ukraine in June 2022 allowed Kiev forces to conduct an important operation to support counter-offensive operations in the Kherson and Kharkov regions, and forced The Russian command had to expand logistics along longer land routes, thereby complicating the supply of ammunition and engineering.
Therefore, experts point out that Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistics facilities or Russian aircraft deep in the rear can be operationally effective, but only if Ukrainian forces coordinate successfully combined with ground operations to take advantage of Russia’s weakened capabilities as a result of the attacks.
War map of Ukraine on April 24. In particular, Russia controls the pink area, the circles represent the fronts, the larger the size, the hotter the two epicentres are Avdiivka and Bakhmut. The yellow areas are where Moscow forces have just gained control (Photo: ISW).
Notable comments in ISW’s April 24 report:
The first, President Biden announced on April 24 that the US would begin sending military equipment to Ukraine “within hours” after signing an aid bill of about $61 billion for Ukraine.
Monday, The US is believed to have supplied Ukraine with an unspecified number of long-range ATACMS missiles in March, some of which were used by Ukraine to attack Russian targets deep in the line.
Tuesday, The appearance of sufficient numbers of long-range ATACMS missiles would allow Ukrainian forces to weaken Moscow’s logistics system and pose a threat to airfields deep behind, although months of delay may help The Russian military has time to neutralize the potential threat of ATACMS missiles.
Wednesday, Ukrainian forces are said to have successfully carried out UAV attacks against Russian industrial and energy facilities in the Smolensk and Lipetsk regions on the night of April 23-24.
Thursday, Russian authorities arrested Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24 on charges of accepting bribes, although some Russian sources said Mr. Ivanov was suspected of treason.
Friday, The above arrest of a senior defense ministry official has sparked speculation in the Russian media about a new round of personnel changes in the country’s military.
Saturday, Russian troops have recently made small advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk and Rabotino.
