Supercomputer predicts Spain vs Morocco: Place all bets on

The Five Thirty Eight supercomputer has analyzed and predicted the match between Spain and Morocco in the 1/8 round of the World Cup 2022.

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Spain vs Morocco | 1/8 World Cup 2022

22:00, December 6

Broadcast channel: VTV2, VTV Can Tho

The last time Spain faced Morocco was at the 2018 World Cup, when the two teams were undefeated with a score of 2-2. However, at that time La Roja was entering the generational transition period, and now Spain has stabilized the squad with a uniform young star cast on all lines.

On the other hand, on the other side of the front line, Morocco is still relying on the shine of some stars like Achraf Hakimi or Hakim Ziyech.

Obviously, when looking at the correlation of forces of the two sides, Spain is being evaluated much better. However, it is not without reason for Morocco to aim for an unexpected result, because the representative of Africa is the team that was unbeaten in the group stage. Meanwhile, Spain, after a 7-0 victory over Costa Rica, was suddenly drawn by Germany and lost to Japan in the final series.

Based on in-depth analysis, the Five Thirty Eight supercomputer predicts that Spain has a 73% win rate. With Morocco, this figure is only 27%.

Calculating further, the Five Thirty Eight supercomputer thinks that Spain’s chance of winning the 2022 World Cup is currently 14%. Morocco has only a 2% chance of raising the world cup.

To be able to come up with the above numbers, the Five Thirty Eight supercomputer has applied three steps of analysis, including:

  • Calculate the number of goals we expect each team to score in the match. These projected match scores represent the number of goals each team will need to score to maintain the same offensive rating as at the start of the match.
  • Generate two Poisson distributions around the scores to give the probability that each team will not score at all, one goal, two goals, etc.
  • Take two Poisson distributions and turn them into a matrix of all possible match scores to calculate the probability of winning, losing or drawing for each team. To avoid missing draws, the supercomputer increases the corresponding probabilities in the matrix.

With technology-based analysis and accurate statistics, the Five Thirty Eight supercomputer regularly makes accurate predictions about the outcome of matches. Previously, this supercomputer also made similar predictions at previous tournaments, including the 2014 World Cup and the 2018 World Cup.

Probable teams

  • Morocco: Bounou, Hakimi, Aguerd, Saiss, Mazraoui, Ounahi, Amrabat, Sabiri, Ziyech, En-Nesyri, Boufal.
  • Spain: Simon, Alba, Laporte, Rodri, Carvajal, Pedri, Busquets, Gavi, Olmo, Asensio, Torres
Supercomputer predicts Spain vs Morocco: Place all bets on 228081

Force information

  • Spain: The strongest lineup
  • Morocco: The strongest lineup

We predict: Spain 3-1 Morocco

Whoscored predicts: Spain 2-0 Morocco

SportsMole predicts: Spain 2-1 Morocco

90min prediction: Spain 1-0 Norway

The Analyst predicts: Spain won 61.3%, Morocco won 14.7%, drew 25%.

Google Prediction: Spain win 59%, Morocco win 15%, draw 26%.

Author Quang Duong / According to ArtTimes – Copy Copy link

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