It all started on October 27, when fighting between the Myanmar army and three ethnic armed groups broke out across Shan state, leading to the first turning point: the country’s army lost control of a town. strategic border with China.
Why is there fighting?
On October 27, the “Three Brothers Alliance” consisting of the Arakan National Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) kicked off. Operation 1027, attacks on several military posts in northern Shan state.
The coalition says its goals are “to protect civilian lives, assert the right to self-defense, maintain territorial control, and respond resolutely to ongoing (military) regime attacks.” )”.
The alliance also expressed opposition to the Myanmar military government, and declared against online gambling fraud centers on the border with China. These centers gather thousands of foreigners, many of whom are illegally detained.
China, a country with significant influence in the region, has called for an end to the fighting and has pressured the Myanmar government to crack down on fraud in which many Chinese are victims.
How much does Campaign 1027 affect?
Although fighting has broken out in many parts of Myanmar since the military seized power in a 2021 coup, the scale of the Three Brothers Alliance offensive is arguably the biggest challenge to the junta. .
Importantly, the Three Brothers Alliance also has support from members of the People’s Defense Force. This is a movement supported by the opposition National Unity Government (NUG).
The opposition to the Myanmar military government announced the establishment of NUG in April 2021, in parallel with protests in many places.
This shows a level of systematic planning and coordination not seen since the coup.
The military government is shaky?
Reuters news agency Quoting analysts, it is too early to predict whether the military government will be weakened by this mutiny.
Myanmar’s generals have ruled the country for the past six decades, although the elected government still existed before the 2021 coup. The country’s military has experience in controlling from the center to uprisings in border area.
However, the 1027 campaign is said to be making things difficult for the Myanmar army, which is well equipped. Rebels are exploiting security gaps in some border areas, taking advantage of the government’s slow response and taking advantage of posts, weapons, ammunition and even armored vehicles left behind by the army.
According to Reuterscurrent developments leave Myanmar’s military government with no choice but to admit they are being challenged.
What happens next?
With being challenged, the military government is not expected to give in easily.
Myanmar’s military has superior firepower and resources, including aerial assets and artillery, and will likely attempt a decisive response to crush the uprising.
At this point, the military will have to decide where to deploy their weapons and attack.
Security forces are already strained by widespread armed opposition, and a strong response on one front could leave another front open to exploitation.
Prolonged fighting will test the endurance and arsenal of both sides. One possible scenario is that the military government loses control of some border areas, although it remains in power at the center.
This is said to be a beneficial result for neighboring countries India, Thailand and China, which are concerned about instability and the risk of a refugee crisis.