War in Ukraine November 21: Russia breaks through at Avdiivka, Kiev 110th brigade retreats?

Russia broke through the defense line, rumors spread that the Ukrainian 110th Brigade withdrew

By channel RVvoenkoryMoscow forces penetrated Kiev’s defenses at Avdiivka in a fierce battle.

Ukrainian military analysts report: “Fighting continues across the city, the Russians are making progress in several areas (including Novokalynove, western Kamenka and the Yasinovatsky line). Very difficult difficulties in the areas, very challenging. Russian forces are attacking northern Krasnohorivka and the settlement of Tochmash”.

To the northwest and west of the settlement of Tochmash, the Russian Armed Forces advanced towards the settlements of Zarya and Stepove. From Stepove, the core units of the Kiev Armed Forces fled, the settlement was partly under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, partly in the gray zone.

The situation remains extremely difficult for Kiev soldiers near the Avdiivka Coal and Chemical Plant. North of the factory, Russian forces attacked along the forest belt in a western direction, Ukrainian troops retreated, and the gray zone expanded.

In the Avdiivka industrial complex, the fiercest battles continued, Russian forces gained many new positions and consolidated along Yasinovatsky Lane. Fierce battles continue.

By channel RybarUkraine has repeatedly tried to counterattack in the industrial park area, but due to the lack of strong support from the air force and armored vehicles, it has suffered significant losses.

At the same time, Ukrainian units tried to probe Russian defenses in the dump area, but worsening weather forced them to limit their shelling to Russian positions. However, the possibility of new counterattacks by Kiev remains possible.

Ukrainian channel Rezident admitted that the Russian siege on Avdiivka continued to be tightened and the supply to the Kiev armed forces was in fact completely cut off, the city was in its death throes.

The pro-Kiev Deep State channel said that Russian troops had advanced north to Novokalinovoye. Judging by the changes to the Deep State map over the past five days, Russian troops have advanced northwest of Stepnoy, south of Vesyoly and from Yasinovataya.

That is, the Russians continued to carry out their plan to gradually surround Avdiivka. The Kiev armed forces could stop it with a counterattack on the flanks, as was the case near Bakhmut in May, but the Russians clearly had this in mind.

By channel Zlati71, news spread about the flight of Ukrainian battalions from Avdiivka. Specifically, the 3rd and 4th battalions of the 110th independent mechanized brigade fled the hottest area of ​​the front.

The fighters of these battalions, like many others in Avdiivka complained about the most difficult conditions, lack of supplies and support.

In principle, this information is consistent with reports of the Russian Armed Forces from Avdiivka, which said that enemy soldiers were regularly thrown into attacks with “human waves” and had no supplies to defending positions in vain, and more and more servicemen contacted the Russian Armed Forces on the Volga frequency and asked to surrender.

All this takes place against the backdrop of Mr. Zelensky’s assurances that the conflict will not end soon, the counteroffensive is not over, and Ukraine will definitely win.

Washington announced a new military aid package worth $100 million

Kyiv Independent President Joe Biden has approved a new military aid package for Kiev worth up to 100 million USD, the Pentagon announced on November 20.

This latest aid package uses funds left over from previous fiscal years, including Stinger air defense missiles, high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) and additional ammunition, 155mm artillery shells and 105mm, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems, and more than 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition.

The announcement came on the same day that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made an unannounced visit to Kiev, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Mr. Austin met President Zelensky “to reaffirm Washington’s steadfast support for Kiev.”

Secretary Austin’s visit comes after months of infighting in Congress over government spending, including military aid to Ukraine.

Mr. Zelensky declared: “There will be more artillery and bullets”

European Pravda Reportedly, after meeting with Pentagon head Lloyd Austin on Monday, November 20, President Zelensky announced a new military support package from the US.

He said: “There is a new defense package for us from the US. I am very grateful. In particular, there will be more artillery and artillery shells needed now.”

President Joe Biden’s administration still has about $5 billion left in the military aid budget that Congress approved last year. Mr. Biden is trying to convince the US Congress to pass a new aid package for both Ukraine and Israel worth $106 billion, including more than $61 billion in funding for Kiev.

Washington Post: The US will continue to send weapons to Kiev

Washington Post (WP) quoted officials who accompanied Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin to Kiev on November 20 as declaring that the US would be able to transfer long-range weapons and artillery shells to Kiev “for some time”.

According to Washington Post, there is growing concern in Kiev due to Western support for the war in the Middle East and decreasing support for Ukraine. A senior defense official said before Austin arrived in Kiev that the Ukrainian and Israeli armies were “two armies facing two different types of conflicts”.

“Where there is overlap in certain types of ammunition… the supply will not be reduced,” the official said.

WP quoted Pentagon officials as saying they hope to learn during the visit what strategy Kiev has prepared to counter Moscow in the winter.

ISW: The defenders are advancing to the left bank of the Kherson region

Ukrainska Pravda reported, experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported further advances by the Self-Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnieper River, and fighting continued near Krynki.

According to ISW analysis data, Kiev forces continued to operate on the east (left) bank of the Dnieper, Kherson region, on November 20 and are believed to have advanced.

Russian military bloggers claim that the enemy has expanded its control zone west of Krynki (30km northeast of Kherson and 2km from the Dnieper River), and fighting continues near the village.

Geolocation footage released on November 20 showed Russian forces continuing to fire TOS-1A thermobaric bullets at Ukrainian forces operating near Krynki.

In addition, Russian military bloggers also said that the enemy attacked in the direction of Poyma and Peschanivka.

The Russian army continued offensive operations on the Kupyansk – Svatovo – Kremenaya line on November 20 and made some progress near Kremennaya.

Ukrainian military sources reported on November 20 that Kiev forces continued to attack effectively south of Bakhmut.

Russian troops also attacked in the direction of Bakhmut on November 20 and advanced southwest of Bakhmut.

Russia gathered reserves and attacked Bakhmut in 2 weeks

Ukrainska Pravda reported that Boris Fityo, head of the press service of the Ukrainian Army Command, said that Russian forces in the Bakhmut direction have “gathered sufficiently large reserves” and are moving to attack.

“In the Bakhmut direction, the situation continues, the enemy has switched from defensive to offensive actions for about two weeks and is trying to regain lost positions,” Mr. Fityo said.

US Secretary of Defense: Ukraine is ready to fight in winter

Interfax (Ukraine) reported that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, during his visit to Kiev, said he believed that Ukrainian soldiers were ready for the winter battle and had the necessary tools to succeed.

“I think they (Ukrainian forces) are ready to fight in the winter, and of course, they did very well last year,” Mr. Austin said.

He added that the latest US$100 million military aid package previously announced by the US, in particular, includes winter equipment and affirmed: “I agree with President Zelensky that the decision is right.” The right thing is to continue to put pressure on, continue to fight with the opponent.”

Russia announced that it shot down 2 enemy UAVs

RIA Novosti Reportedly, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that its forces shot down one UAV over the Kursk area and another over the Oryol area in the early morning of November 21.

Oryol Oblast Governor Andrey Klychkov said via his official Telegram channel that a UAV was destroyed in the airspace of Shivelykinskiy district. There was no damage or casualties.

The Kursk Oblast borders the Sumy Oblast of Ukraine, while the Oryol Oblast borders the Kaluga, Tula, Kursk Oblasts and the Bryansk Oblast of Russia to the west.

Russian officials have repeatedly accused Ukraine of cross-border incursions into Russia’s border areas as well as launching UAVs toward Moscow. Kiev rarely comments on attacks inside Russia.

With heavy casualties, Ukraine stepped up military recruitment

Newsweek reported, an official said that Ukraine is studying a new law to expand its force mobilization network as casualties increase in the conflict with Russia.

Ukrainian lawmaker Mariana Bezuhla announced the preparation of the bill in a Facebook post, saying that if signed into law, it would expand the pool of people who can be drafted to fight in the army.

Oleksandr Zavitnevych, head of the Parliamentary Committee on security and defense, confirmed to RBC (Ukraine) that preparations for this law are underway. The move comes nearly 21 months after the conflict broke out and casualties on both sides mounted amid fierce clashes in Avdiivka, an industrial hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

In October, Russia launched its biggest offensive in months to gain control of Avdiivka. Moscow mobilized up to 40,000 soldiers, tanks and armored vehicles for a new attack on the city, which is considered the gateway to the capital Donetsk.

Ukraine, like Russia, has largely avoided releasing casualty figures for its forces. However, according to Western intelligence estimates, they are very significant. A US Defense Intelligence Agency assessment leaked in April estimated Ukraine had 124,500-131,000 casualties, including 15,500-17,500 dead and 109,000-113,500 wounded.

In November 2022, General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff while in office, said casualties on both sides at that time both exceeded 100,000 people.

Data released by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Monday, November 20, said that Russia lost 640 soldiers in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of Russian casualties since February 24, 2022 to 319,210 soldiers.

Newsweek could not independently verify the figures.

Estimates of the number of casualties vary, with Kiev’s numbers often exceeding those of its Western allies. Russia rarely releases information on military losses, but in September 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said 5,937 soldiers had died in the war.

Russia could mobilize after the 2024 presidential election

Guardian Reportedly, Secretary of the National Defense and Security Council of Ukraine, Oleksii Danilov, said that Russia could begin general mobilization after the Russian presidential election scheduled to be held on March 17, 2024.

Mr. Danilov said in a speech to the International Security Forum in Halifax, Canada: “Russia has sought to adapt and continuously inject capital into the defense sector. As expected, Russia has demonstrated its ability to persevere. stronger in the face of Western sanctions. Russia is increasingly putting its economy in a war situation. General mobilization could take place after the 2024 presidential election.”

Some sources told Reuters that President Putin has decided to run for president in March, a move that will keep him in power at least until 2030.

In September, Ukraine’s military said Russia could soon launch a major mobilization campaign to try to recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers.