The risk of the Middle East sinking into large-scale war appeared earlier this month, after Tehran accused Tel Aviv of attacking the Iranian embassy in Syria.
On the evening of April 1, an Israeli fighter jet was accused of launching a missile from the Golan Heights into the Syrian capital Damascus, hitting the consulate building inside the Iranian embassy. Syrian air defense cannot intercept all missiles.
The attack caused the consulate to collapse, killing 16 people, including 7 Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) advisers who were meeting inside. IRGC confirmed that two of their generals, Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, were on the list of dead from the raid.
Just minutes earlier, an Israeli official informed the US that a raid was underway, but did not elaborate on the target or location, according to unnamed US officials.
The White House also soon learned about another surprise Israeli attack that occurred that same day. Israeli drones attacked an aid convoy in Gaza, killing 7 aid workers from the World Central Kitchen charity. Two raids in one day began 19 days of the US racing to prevent the Middle East crisis from escalating into an all-out war in the Middle East.
Not long after the raid in Damascus, Israeli ambassador Michael Herzog and the country’s defense attaché were present at the White House, when US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and top aides held an online meeting with officials in Tel Aviv. In an exchange on the sidelines of the meeting, Herzog explained that Israel had targeted Zahedi and other high-ranking Iranian officers, according to US officials.
As the US and Israel wait for a response from Iran, some predict Tehran will directly attack Tel Aviv’s territory, something it has never done before.
The consulate in the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, was turned into a pile of rubble after an attack on April 1. Image: Reuters
US officials fear that Israel’s raid could potentially trigger attacks from Iran’s proxy forces on US bases in Iraq and Syria, where about 4,500 US soldiers and citizens are present. They also speculate Tehran could attack Israeli embassies abroad in response.
After the attack on the embassy in Syria, Iran asked the Swiss embassy in Tehran to send the US a written message, blaming them for the attack in harsh words, according to US officials. Washington denies involvement.
Two days after the attack in Damascus, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin appeared angry in a call with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant, criticizing Gallant for not mentioning this plan despite meeting him at the Pentagon one day. week before that, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The death of two IRGC generals in the raid made Iran very angry. After failing to get the United Nations Security Council to condemn the attack, Tehran signaled it would retaliate. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi announced on April 3 that “the raid cannot go without a response.”
Tensions occur when US-Israel relations are at their lowest level. In a phone call on April 4, US President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that international support for Tel Aviv was seriously declining after the attack on the aid convoy.
Mr. Biden added that Israel needs to allow more humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip and reduce civilian casualties, affirming that US support will be based on an assessment of Tel Aviv’s actual actions.
But the White House boss also told Mr. Netanyahu that the US supports Israel in dealing with Iran. The US President ordered the Pentagon to increase efforts to protect Israel and the US military activated top secret plans to support Tel Aviv in case of crisis.
When the US President welcomed the Japanese Prime Minister at the White House on April 10, Secretary Austin pulled Mr. Biden aside and asked for permission to turn around the USS Carney, a destroyer on its way from the Middle East back to its home port. Florida. The USS Carney, along with the destroyer USS Arleigh Burke in the eastern Mediterranean, are close enough to assist Israel in monitoring and shooting down missiles in the event of an Iranian attack. Mr. Biden agreed with this request.
A group of US military personnel also secretly went to Tel Aviv to join their Israeli counterparts at a missile defense command center, planning to deal with a potential attack.
Predicting that Iran will deploy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to attack, F-15E fighter teams have been deployed to the area to support Israel’s defense. An F-16 fighter squadron stationed in the area also participated in this campaign. Saudi Arabia and Jordan aircraft are also preparing for defense plans.
The aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower, at that time in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, moved closer to Israel so it could deploy fighters to intercept any UAVs launched by the Iran-backed Houthi group.
In parallel with preparing combat plans, Mr. Biden’s senior aides also continuously called foreign partners, asking them to persuade Iran not to retaliate against Israel. CIA Director William Burns has asked intelligence agencies in Europe, the Middle East and Türkiye to urge Tehran to de-escalate.
Even while watching Iran move missiles from its stockpile and put them on launch pads, the scale of Iran’s attack plan remains a big question for US intelligence. Some intelligence reports predict Tehran may target only Israeli diplomatic facilities or other locations abroad.
However, after several days of waiting without seeing Iran launch a missile, US and Israeli intelligence officials believe that Tehran intends to carry out a large-scale direct attack on Israeli territory. The question now is when it will happen and what the goal is.
General Erik Kurilla, commander of US forces in the Middle East, arrived in Israel on April 11 and planned to stay here until Iran attacked, but Secretary of Defense Austin ordered Kurilla to leave immediately, out of concern. afraid that the US could be seen by Iran as “complicit” in any response by Tel Aviv. General Kurilla then participated in online discussions with the Israeli side from Jordan.
US President Joe Biden held a meeting with senior US officials at the Situation Room at the White House on April 13. Image: The White House
By the time Mr. Biden left for the weekend in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware on the evening of April 12, Iran’s attack plan became clearer.
“We have clearer and more certain intelligence about the time Iran plans to attack,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.
President Biden rushed back to Washington, DC on the afternoon of April 13.
When Iran’s attack began on the evening of April 13, US officials in the Situation Room at the White House and the Pentagon monitored more than 300 UAVs, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles being launched from airspace. Iran, crossing Iraq and Jordan, rushed towards Israel. Even with some intelligence information, the scale of the raid surprised US officials, according to close sources.
“Its scale is beyond what we expected,” a senior official said.
More than 150 UAVs were deployed by Iran in the first launch and are expected to take 5-7 hours to reach Israeli territory. Then more than 30 cruise missiles were launched with a travel time of about 2-3 hours. Finally, Iran deployed more than 100 ballistic missiles that could reach Israeli territory in just a few dozen minutes.
Iran calculated the timing of its weapons launches so that they could reach Israeli territory at the same time, to overwhelm Tel Aviv’s defense system. They have prioritized military targets over civilian ones, such as the Nevatim base in the Negev desert, where Israel has deployed F-35 stealth fighters.
The defense plan previously prepared by Israel and its allies was effective, helping to intercept 99% of Iran’s weapons and protecting the country from what was considered the most intense attack in decades.
Israel’s Arrow defense system intercepted most of the ballistic missiles, while two US regional ships in the eastern Mediterranean shot down several others. The US Patriot battery in Erbil, Iraq successfully intercepted a missile. Fighters from the US, UK, France and Israel shot down Iranian UAVs from afar.
Immediately after Israel survived the raid with negligible damage, the White House switched from protecting Israel to restraining this close ally. On April 13, US time, Mr. Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu had a tense phone call.
The White House boss advised Mr. Netanyahu, who is attending a meeting with the war cabinet after the raid, to consider carefully the next step, because he believes that Israel “has won” in the confrontation with Iran. . He mentioned that Israel had eliminated Iran’s military commanders in Lebanon and Syria, as well as defeated Tehran’s large-scale raid.
US officials fear that Israel could immediately retaliate strongly against Iran. Iran has warned that if it responds, it will not hesitate to take more drastic tit-for-tat moves, which could push the Middle East to the brink of full-blown conflict.
The US believes that Israel is in a better strategic position because it receives support from many countries. If Tel Aviv reacts rashly, it could once again lose this important support.
But hardline members of Netanyahu’s coalition government demand a big and swift response to Iran. After a phone call with Mr. Biden, the Israeli Prime Minister and ministers in the ruling Likud party decided to retaliate in a “reasonable and not irresponsible” way.
Iran launched more than 100 UAVs and missiles to attack Israel
Israeli air defense opened fire to intercept UAVs in Hebron. Video: X/OSINTdefender
Early on the morning of April 19, Israel is said to have carried out a “limited” response, targeting only a military location in Iran’s Isfahan province. Although the raid was small-scale, it showed that Tel Aviv could overcome Iran’s air defense system and penetrate deep into its opponent’s territory.
Unlike the raid 19 days ago in Syria, this time Israel informed the US a few minutes in advance. Israel also chose to remain silent about the attack, while Iran said that the explosions had no evidence to be related to Israel and did not need to respond. The Middle East at least thus escaped the escalation of tension and the risk of falling into the abyss of another war.
Thanh Tam (According to WSJ, AFP, Reuters)
